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Explanation

The graph below shows the 1458 daily simple moving average (1458d SMA). A simple moving average takes the average of all the prices in a list.

As an example, let's take the 3 day moving average for the following prices: 250, 320, 280. The daily moving average would be: (250 + 320 + 280) / 3 = 283.33

Similarly, the 1458d SMA will take the daily closing prices of the last 1458 days and return the average.


Why is the 1458d SMA interesting?

The 1458d SMA has historically proven to be a good support for the Bitcoin price long-term (over a 4-year bear/bull cycle). Every time the Bitcoin price was close to the 1458d SMA, it has been most profitable to buy. As an example, look at the following dates and analyse what the price has done. You can click the below links:

  • December 2018. More specifically from the 13th until the 16th of December 2018, the price almost touched the 1458d SMA at around $3158 (vs 1458d SMA $3055). This turned out to be the low price of the late 2017 - 2020 bear cycle.
  • January 2015 - December 2015. 2015 was a tough year for Bitcoin. In the deep troughs of the bear market, the price seemed to be completely collapsing. If you were a bullish bitcoiner, you would've bought at the 1458d SMA intersection though. The price touched the SMA multiple times in 2015 and even went under it a few times (for around 1 day each time only!). In hindsight, this is a great example of being brave and buying the dip.

1458d SMA Chart